COP27: the main challenges
I have been canvassing people getting ready to go to COP27 to get a glimpse of what we might get out of it. There are three schools of thought: nothing will change, it will be a disaster, and there might be some useful progress.
Credits to Steve Bell/The Guardian
Clearly, climate mitigation, adaptation, and finance are not at the top of today politicians’ agendas. They are busy facing short-term challenges including energy prices. Cynics would say that, more or less, the only progress between COP26 and COP27 is the fact that the war in Ukraine has led to higher energy prices. Debatable but I see their point.
As I am packing my suitcase for the sunny Egypt, I made my mind around expectations for COP27. There are three schools of thought. Number one is that nothing will happen. Number two is that the conference is going to be a disaster. Number three – the one that I subscribe to – is that we might see some useful progress, on financing mechanisms for example.
This is the second COP taking place after the implementation of the Paris Agreement started and the first after the Paris rulebook was agreed. It will be very hard to frame success for this event for a variety of reasons. Here I bring up my top three list.
1. The global context
Attention is turned to energy security, and nobody is questioning the fact that climate change is taking a back seat on the agenda. The question is how long will it last? The Glasgow Climate Pact was one of the main outcomes of the COP last year. It requested countries to strengthen their NDCs and align them with the Paris Agreement goals by the end of this year.
I just had a look at the list and there are less than 20 countries that have updated their targets so far and only a few of them are large economies. In some way, this was expected, but the current global situation made it even worse.
2. Communicating outcomes to global media
Managing the expectations for the negotiators will be easy, as they have a full overview of what is going on. Not the same for the rest of the world. COP26 created a new series of “negotiating spaces”. They aim at delivering more ambitious actions and decisions at future Conferences. These include climate finance targets, adaptations, scaling up mitigation, and more. This year, countries are expected to make progress in all these areas but none of these tracks are mandated or scheduled to deliver an outcome yet.
There is even more. Developing countries expect progress on issues where results are either difficult to communicate or politically unfeasible. There is a high potential that things will go off the rails perhaps in the following way. This is labelled as "African COP" and one of the things that is high on the agenda is to make the developed world pay for loss and damage. It probably will not. The moral outrage that this will trigger can become a poisonous political environment that will make progress impossible on anything else.
3. Logistics
Many delegates and observers have been upset about the cancellation of hotel bookings and the lack of affordable accommodation. Green and youth groups told the Egyptian host they were being priced out of the conference. They described as “unprecedented” the barriers to securing affordable accommodation in the Red Sea beach resort.
In February, Climate Home News reported on a letter from the Egyptian Hotel Association to hotels in the city. It laid out minimum prices for hotel rooms during the conference, describing the event as a “unique tourism opportunity”. A night in a five-star hotel would cost at least 500 USD and 120 USD for a two-star institution. Since then, delegates who made early bookings saw their reservations cancelled and had to pay three to six times the price initially advertised. Not exactly that level of “inclusivity” that such conference deserves.
The event was framed as an “implementation” COP. Much evidence on the progresses will fall on the shoulders of country delegates to share success stories. So, they better refresh their speeches ahead of the plenary sessions that will be held next Sunday and Monday in Sharm. I will be there, seating in the front and trying to share with you every twist and turn of an exciting week ahead of us.
